標題: IOTA Occultation Predictions for 2011
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IOTA Occultation Predictions for 2011
For 2011, as for 2009 and 2010, the predictions are being
distributed in three files, rather than in one .zip file we did
before 2009, since from 2009 on, both lunar total and grazing
occultation predictions have been computed with Dave Herald's Occult
4 program, while in the past the grazes were computed with Eberhard
Riedel's Grazereg program. The Occult 4 files have long
comprehensively descriptive names that can't be automatically
combined in a single .zip file in the DOS environment that we used
in the past; the three files are:

Lunar total occultations in a plain text (.txt) file.
Lunar grazing occultations in a .zip file described below.
For 2011, as for the first time in 2010, these now include
much more detailed and more accurate predicted lunar profiles
based on the Japanese Kaguya spacecraft laser altimeter data
that were released early in November 2009. Also, in some
cases .kml files are now included that can be used with
Google Earth to plot the graze paths (just the limit lines)
there.
Asteroidal/planetary occultation local circumstance appulse
predictions in a plain text file whose extent is your station
number within your IOTA region, such as .123; you should
rename it to .txt so that it can be opened, and printed, if
desired, with Word or any other work processor. The file
names of these are short, such as blcm10.123.

In addition to the three individual files, two more plain text files
giving general data for all of the currently predicted 2010 IOTA
asteroidal and planetary (including planetary satellite) occultations
are included in another .zip file called mp2011.zip .

All plain text files should be displayed and/or printed with a
fixed-space font such as Courier for the columns of the tables to
line up properly.

If you have Occult 4 installed on your computer (it's a free
download from
http://www.lunar-occultations.com/iota/occult4.htm ),
you could compute your own predictions, including a local summary
file for asteroidal occultations that is similar to the local
circumstance/appulse predictions for these events. There's some
advantage in that, over just using the files that we send you, since
you can interactively click, for example, on a line of the lunar
total occultation predictions to generate a view of the Moon
depicting where the occultation will occur. For grazing
occultations, the IOTA predictions sent to you will have the
advantage of observer scan information at the bottom of the limit
prediction .txt file (that is, a list of other observers within the
their travel distances of the limit line) that won't be available if
you compute the predictions yourself with Occult 4.
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The graze prediction .zip file includes the following:

A summary list of all the grazes selected for the observer, in a
file named Date1 to Date 2 Graze Summary for [station name].txt
The dates are in YYYYMMDD form.
For each graze, a data file giving the path and other information
about the graze, similar to the Grazereg predictions, but with
no printer profiles, in a file named Date Graze of [star #]
[station name].txt
For each graze, an image file (.jpg) for the predicted profile, in a
file named Date Graze of [star #] [station name].jpg . The
profiles are similar to those of Grazereg, but being line drawings
they are more detailed, showing a detailed jagged curve for the
Kaguya profile, and then all the past graze observations (that
have been reported to IOTA recently, or converted from the ILOC
and HMNAO observation files) in the range of this predicted
profile, shown as small circles (video or photoelectric,
"instumental"), squares (visual or instrumental), or +'s (visual).
Comparison of the Kaguya and Watts profiles with past graze
observations show that the Kaguya profile data are very much
better than the Watts data. Although the comparisons have found
some errors in parts of the Kaguya data, the differences are quite
small and negligible for prediction purposes. The differences
that you see in the plotted past observations from the Kaguya
profile are more due to the difference in the librations at the
time the observations were made from those used to generate the
predicted profile, than to actual errors in the Kaguya data.
For each graze, a .kml file that can be used with Google Earth to
plot the predicted limit line. Although useful to see where the
graze path is located, I find more useful the GoogleMap Web sites
such as Brad Timerson's described below that can be used to also
specify offsets from the predicted limit line that can be
determined from the predicted profile to define the better zones
from which the most multiple events might be observed.
A map showing all grazes for the time period in the region, not just
the ones selected for the observer. The map has index numbers at
the west and east ends of the paths, and includes as dots all
stations in the .site file. The file name is Regional Grazes -
xxxxxx.jpg where xxxxxx is the file name (without ".site") of the
.site file for the region (such as argz10). For the whole year,
the plot is usually so dense with lines as to be virtually
useless. It includes dots showing the locations of all stations
in the region for which predictions have been generated.
A table of all the grazes for the time period in the region, not
just the ones selected for the observer. The index # given on the
map is in the first column, followed by the date & time of the
event, the star numbuer and magnitudes, the percent sunlit
(illuminated) of the Moon and whether waxing (+) or waning(-), the
Elon(gation) in deg. from the Sun, and the cusp angle of the
graze. The file name is Regional Grazes - xxxxxx.txt where
xxxxxx is the file name (without ".site") of the .site file for the
region.

These predictions are all largely self-explanatory, being similar to
those distributed in past years. They are described in the Occult
documentation; if you have Occult 4, click on "Help" in the upper
left, then click on the "+" to the left of "Lunar Predictions" to
expand that, then click on the "+" to the left of "Graze Predictions".
The main item there is the Graze profile; there isn't a separate
description of the path information, since the column headings, etc.,
make that self-explanatory.
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PROCEDURES FOR REPORTING LUNAR OCCULTATION OBSERVATIONS

New starting in 2009 is how ALL Lunar occultations are reported. The
International Lunar Occultation Center (ILOC) in Japan is no longer
accepting or reducing observations. ALL observations MUST be emailed
to the IOTA Coordinator for your region. Several techniques are
available for sending in observations from an Excel spreadsheet to a
stand-alone program; Occult 4 can also be used to generate suitable
reports. The new forms and procedures for North America can be
found on a Grazing Occultation page that Brad Timerson maintains at:
http://www.timerson.net/IOTA/

INTERACTIVE DETAILED GRAZE MAP WEB PAGES

This page also contains detailed information on many of the best
grazes each month including a Google Map that can be used to zoom in
on observing sites. Events that you want listed that may not be
listed can be added if you email me with enough lead time. Brad can
also supply graze profiles for specific longitudes and elevations.
Mail your requests to:
btimerson@rochester.rr.com

Once again, a full explanation for the new procedures can be found
on the Graze page referenced above. PLEASE read it and print out
the Word or text version for future reference.
_____

Description of Local Circumstances of Solar System Objects with Stars

The name and coordinates of the prediction location (station)
are given in the header. Most of the columns are self-explanatory
and are briefly described below. This is as it was written in
1999,but I've updated (to 2008/2010) the star catalog codes as they
are currently used. Before the predictions for 2008, all events
were "unfiltered" except for those occuring in the daytime or below
the horizon at night; those have always been eliminated, except for
stars brighter than mag. 6.5 (those have been included in daylight),
and also depending on the time uncertainty, some events a very short
distance below the horizon, or with the Sun barely above it, have
been included. For 2008, fainter events were eliminated with a
formula depending on the telescope aperture, the limit being mag.
11.4 for an aperture of 10 cm (the default value, if IOTA doesn't
know your telescope aperture), 13.0 for 20 cm, and 15.4 for 40 cm
aperture. But still, all events passing these tests were included
as long as they occurred above the horizon at night, resulting in
predictions for many distant events, even on other continents
thousands of km away, of no interest for virtually all observers.
Starting with the predictions for 2010, distant events are now
excluded, resulting in a list that I hope will be more useful for
observers. Three distances are computed, and the event is retained
if the distance is within a specified maximum for either one of
them:

1. The distance of the central line in km on the sky plane is
computed. If this is less than the observer's travel radius, or
less than twice the radius for stars of mag. 10.0 and less (and also
the object diameter is greater than 15 km), or less than 4 times the
radius for stars of mag. 8.5 and less (and also the object diameter
is greater than 30 km), or less than 4 times the radius for stars of
mag. 6.5 and less (and also the object diameter is greater than 30
km), the event is retained; otherwise it is skipped. Note that the
distance on the ground will always be greater than the distance on
the sky plane due to projection on the Earth's surface, so this
criterion is generous; there will be a fair number of events on the
ground outside the observer's travel radius in which he/she may not
be interested. In such cases, the observer can check the map for
the event on Steve Preston's Web site at
http://www.asteroidoccultation.com to see if he/she is close enough
to the path to warrant observation, keeping in mind possible
prediction errors (note the dashed lines indicating the 1-sigma
limits on Preston's maps; even 2-sigma shifts are more frequent than
one would statistically expect).

2. The distance in arc seconds is less than a value input to the
program; we are using 0.5" or 0.2" for now (I recommend 0.2").

3. The distance is greater than a specified number of the object's
diameter; we are using 10.0 since few satellites of asteroids have
distances from the primary greater than that.
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The columns are described below.

DATE: U.T. date of the appulse (or occultation).
PRIORITY CODE: Many of the occultations are by small asteroids that have
little chance of happening at a given location, or involve faint stars
that are more difficult to find, and that might be overwhelmed by the
sometimes brighter asteroid for visual observers (see OCC. DMAG). So
IOTA has added a priority code, given between the DATE and OBJECT:
*: Best, within IOTA criteria, event within 1.2" + object radius.
You should try to observe these events.
x: As above, but event unlikely since sep. more than 1.2" + ob.radius.
+: Below IOTA criteria, but by no more than 1.0 mag., and the event
is within 1.2" + the object's angular radius.
-: As above, but event unlikely since sep. more than 1.2" + ob.radius.
blank: More than 1.0 mag. below IOTA criteria, or DMAG 0.5 or less.
* and - were used in previous years, but now that more accurate
predictions are possible with Hipparcos and ACT-relative astrometry,
some fainter events might be considered, so + and x are now added.
OBJECT: The first ten characters of the object's name.
SAO #: 0 is given if the star is not in the SAO catalog.
D: Double star code, same as used in Occult or PC-Evans lunar
occultation predictions.
S: Source catalog for star, same as used in Table 2 of planetary, cometary,
and asteroidal occultations given in Occultation Newsletter (will be
available for 1999 sometime in January). Only 3 codes are
used for the 2008 and 2010 predictions: H, Hipparcos (Hip2);
T, Tycho2; U, UCAC2 (or 2UCAC).
Star Number: The star's identification (source catalog number) in
the catalog that was used for the prediction. For the Tycho2
catalog (code T), the 8-digit number given, xxxxyyyy, when expanded
in full should be xxxx-0yyyy-1.
STAR MAG: Star's visual magnitude.
OCC. DMAG: Drop in combined brightness in magnitudes if an occultation
occurs. Visual observers will probably not be able to detect events
if this is 0.5 or less, and even 1.0 or less are hard in bad seeing.
DUR SEC: Expected duration of a central occultation in seconds.
U. T.: The Universal Time of closest approach as seen from the station.
DISTANCE: This gives the distance of the object center from the star at the
time of closest approach as seen from the station. It is given
in arc seconds as seen in the sky, in kilometers measured in
the fundamental plane (which will always be less than the
distance on the ground), and in object diameters. Positive
distances indicate that the object center should pass south of
the star as seen from the station (so the occultation shadow
should also pass south of the station).
EPHM.ERR.: Ephemeris error, given in arc seconds in the sky, and in minutes
of time (the value in arc seconds divided by the angular speed).
Next are given the altitude above the horizon (ALT.) and azimuth (AZ.,
counted eastward from due north) of the star, the Sun, and the Moon at the
time of closest approach at the station. The elongations (ELG) of the Sun
and the Moon from the star are also given. The last column gives the percent
of the Moon's apparent disk that will be sunlit, with + indicating waxing and
- indicating waning phases.

Much has changed in the field of predicting, observing, and
reporting asteroid occultations over the past few years. If you have
had little experience in this field, you are encouraged to read
through the message carefully and going to each of the websites
mentioned. Observing asteroid occultations is an exciting addition
to your normal lunar occultation observations and provides needed
information about asteroid shapes as well as stellar and asteroidal
astrometry.

The preferred location for finding predictions is Steve Preston's
webpage at:
http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/ Once you have an
event in mind, Derek Breit maintains a page of detailed information
at:
http://www.poyntsource.com/New/Global.htm

All observers of asteroid occultations are encouraged to download
and install the program OccultWatcher. This program allows each
individual to screen all worldwide events according to user-defined
criteria. You can identify which events you are interested in
observing as well as see others that will be observing the same
event. A map is created showing each observers' chord so that
duplication can be minimized. The author has also added mutual
satellite events involving Jupiter, Saturn,and Uranus to the
predictions available. Download this program from:
http://www.hristopavlov.net/OccultWatcher/publish.htm

Effectively, the IOTA local circumstance/appulse predictions provide
a long-range (full year) list of events in your area somewhat
similar to what Occult Watcher provides. But Occult Watcher will
always include the latest prediction updates that can't be included
with the IOTA annual predictions.

There are several websites maintained by Brad Timerson detailing
various aspects of asteroid occultations.

The Worldwide Homepage contains links to all the major reporting
groups around the world. There is also additional information on
the observing of asteroid occultations, software and equipment
links, links to YouTube videos of unusual events, and much more.
http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/observations/

The North American Homepage is designed to provide information
specifically for North American observers of asteroid occultations.
There are links to Results from previous years, the webpage
containing Report Form templates and Directions for their use, links
to other Prediction pages, and much more.
http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/observations/NA/

The page checked out most often by observers is the one containing
the Results of observations. Links to Prediction maps, profiles
created from the observations, and maps of observer locations can be
found on this page. There are also lists of events that have been
observed and how many events each individual has observed.
http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/observations/Results/

Of special note is the page containing Report Form templates,
at
http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/observations/Forms/AsteroidReportForms.html
. The templates are Excel spreadsheets that make extensive use of
drop-down lists to insure that all information crucial to a complete
analysis of an event has been reported. Observers are encouraged to
use this Excel form (also can be used with OpenOffice) to report
their observations. Starting in 2011, individual event report forms
will no longer be available, but you can use the "Blank Excel Report
Form, No Directions" that you can get on the upper right part of the
page. If you can't use the Excel file, there is a blank text form
available on the webpage for users to fill in. All Reports are now
emailed to a special account for archiving. That email address is:
reports@asteroidoccultation.com

Much information about observing occultations of all types is in
"Chasing the Shadow: The IOTA Occultation Observer's Manual"
available for free download at
http://www.poyntsource.com/IOTAmanual/Preview.htm .

Finally, everyone involved in any field involving occultations is
asked to join the Yahoo Group, IOTAocculations.
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/IOTAoccultations/ It is here that
the latest information on what others are doing, observing
techniques, etc. can be found.
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